Saturday, September 19, 2026

QNTM Week Wrap — Sept 15–19, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 names) returned +2.0% this week versus +11.0% for SPY, a wide gap driven mostly by sector positioning rather than stock-picking.

Attribution: Energy holdings were the bright spot as the Iran-conflict oil spike pushed WTI near $100 and Brent above $107, extending a rally that has energy leading among S&P sectors so far in 2026 . Materials dragged: Steel Dynamics and Nucor shares fell more than 1.5% after third-quarter earnings guidance came in weaker than analysts expected . Sentiment in media names also softened after Netflix declined more than 3% following a Wells Fargo downgrade tied to weaker engagement and content trends . The model's underweight to mega-cap tech capped participation as the Nasdaq Composite was poised for a third winning week in four, with tech stocks leading the rebound after the central bank meeting .

Macro: The Fed unanimously raised rates for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday, and policymakers penciled in one more increase for 2026 . Friday brought triple-witching volatility as the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high and hinted at more hikes ahead , pushing yields higher.

Regime: QNTM's overlay held "mildly bullish" (VIX 14.8), though conviction sat at just 49.4/100 across 1,420 names with only 3.9% high-conviction — a cautious undertone beneath the calm volatility print.

Next week: Watch the Trump-Xi summit, seen as a potential market wildcard , plus flash September PMIs and earnings from AutoZone, KB Home, Paychex, Cintas and General Mills.

Research/education only — not investment advice.