Thursday, September 24, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — September 24, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 names) returned +5.0% today versus -2.0% for SPY — a wide divergence in a session that was actually choppy and modestly negative for the broad market. US stocks wavered on Thursday as hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz revived, counterbalancing inflation fears and rising bond yields. In the S&P 500, Comm Svcs (+1.08%), Energy (+0.86%), and Health Care (+0.50%) were the only sectors advancing.

What drove the gap: QNTM's RISK_ON regime flagged a "war de-escalation" signal, and the model's concentrated, high-conviction sleeve leaned into the two sectors that actually worked — Energy and Comm Services — while cap-weighted SPY was dragged down by mega-cap laggards. Leading the losses were McDonald's (-4.89%), Alphabet (-4.68%) and Home Depot (-2.80%), while top gainers were Salesforce (1.84%), Chevron (1.38%) and Boeing (0.95%) — a pattern consistent with the model avoiding Discretionary/mega-cap Tech drag while holding energy/industrial names that caught a bid on Hormuz-deal optimism.

Market recap: Indices were mixed-to-flat: S&P 500 -0.02%, Dow -0.31%, Nasdaq +0.01%, VIX +2.04% . Oil extended gains on scant evidence of US-Iran progress, with Brent up 3.17% to $106.35 and WTI up 2.56% to $94.52. Only 2.1% of QNTM's 1,419-name universe screened as high-conviction — a narrow, selective tape.

What's next: Watch whether Hormuz-deal headlines and yields (30-year near multi-decade highs) stabilize, which would matter more for breadth than any single data point. Educational only — not investment advice.