Saturday, September 26, 2026

QNTM Week Wrap — Session of Friday, Sept 25, 2026 (reported Sept 26)

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) returned -2.26% this week versus -0.28% for SPY — a roughly 200bp lag. Conviction sat at a tepid 48.0 out of 100 across 1,247 scored names, with only 1.3% flagged high-conviction, consistent with a market that fell on Wednesday "as Treasury yields marched higher amid concerns among investors that more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve may be coming down the pike" . The 10-year yield hit its "highest level since July 2007" mid-week, pressuring rate-sensitive holdings.

Attribution: Financials and insurance names were the weak spot — Raymond James "lost 5% amid broader financial-sector weakness" and Allstate slid further on "$748 million in estimated catastrophe losses for August 2026" . Utilities and consumer discretionary also lagged on the rate spike. On the winning side, chip/AI names helped offset losses early in the week as "AI-related chip stocks driving the broader market rally on Monday" was "led by a 12% surge in Intel" , with Microsoft adding to gains later on Copilot enterprise news.

Macro: VIX held low near 14.9, and the regime stayed RISK_ON as oil reversed hard — crude closed the week near $92.41, down 2.33% — on reports of Iran-Hormuz de-escalation, pulling yields off their peak into Friday.

Next week: ISM Manufacturing PMI, jobless claims, and the September employment report headline a data-heavy calendar, with several Fed speakers on deck.

Research/education only — not investment advice.