Monday, September 28, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — September 28, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned -0.77%, exactly matching SPY's -0.77%. No stock-picking divergence today — this was a broad, macro-driven selloff that the model's 50-name book couldn't outrun.

What drove it: QNTM's regime overlay flipped to RISK_OFF, and conviction across the 1,418-stock universe sat at just 48.0 (neutral-to-weak), with only 1.4% of names flagging as high-conviction. That's a thin signal environment — the model had little edge to lean into today, so it moved with the tape rather than against it. The catalyst was geopolitical, not fundamental: stocks fell as oil prices climbed amid renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, one day after President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to end the war . Brent gained to close near $105 after climbing as high as $108.83, while WTI settled near $92.60 after hitting $96.54 earlier — consistent with QNTM's WTI read of ~$93. Energy and consumer-defensive stocks were the biggest gainers while consumer cyclicals and communication services fell the most , a rotation that squeezed growth-tilted holdings broadly.

Market recap: The S&P 500 almost erased its month's gain while the Nasdaq 100 lost about 1%, and Treasury 10-year yields hit a nearly two-decade high . Money markets boosted bets on an October Fed increase. VIX ticked up to ~16.

What's next: Investors face a full slate of inflation and labor data this week, along with Micron and Nike earnings, peaking Friday with September nonfarm payrolls. Watch for further Iran-Strait of Hormuz headlines to keep driving oil and rate expectations.

Educational research only — not investment advice.