Wednesday, September 30, 2026

QNTM Post-Close Day Wrap — September 30, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned -0.39% today, trailing SPY's -0.2% by roughly 19 basis points.

What drove it: QNTM's regime overlay flagged RISK_OFF on the back of continued Middle East war escalation, even as VIX stayed muted at 15.93 — a mismatch that signals the overlay was pricing oil/war risk rather than equity-vol stress. WTI sat at $90.60, and Brent held near $100 as oil prices hovered between $90 and $100 a barrel as the U.S. war with Iran dragged on, contributing to stubborn inflation . Conviction across the 1,418-name universe was thin (47.6 average, just 1.3% high-conviction), pushing the model's 50 holdings toward a defensive tilt. That tilt cost it today: the S&P 500 erased its September loss, with technology shares leading gains , after slower-than-anticipated inflation data reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates in October . A defensively-positioned book largely missed that mega-cap tech bid, explaining the underperformance versus a tech-heavy SPY.

Market recap: Tech stocks gained after a cool reading on the PCE index reinforced the notion that the Fed can wait to hike, with the gauge rising 3.4% in August versus 3.7% expected . Communication and utilities led sector gainers, while financial services and consumer defensive stocks underperformed. Treasury yields stayed near multi-decade highs on war-linked inflation concerns.

What's next: Watch for any shift in the Iran conflict's oil-supply impact and upcoming jobs data for confirmation of the Fed's rate path.

Research/education only — not investment advice.