Thursday, October 1, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — October 1, 2026

QNTM's 50-stock model gained +1.31% today, well ahead of SPY's +0.14% — a rare ~117bp edge in a session where the broad tape barely moved. The Dow closed just above the flatline while the S&P 500 increased by 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite inched higher.

What drove it: The divergence traces to energy. Crude oil prices rose sharply Thursday after a report the U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, with Brent jumping 4.4% to $102.31 and WTI climbing 2.7% to $92.87. That geopolitical jolt — Iran-war escalation — is exactly the macro flag in QNTM's regime model that pushed today's reading to RISK_OFF. QNTM's concentrated book carries real exposure to that trade, and refiners did the heavy lifting: Marathon Petroleum stock and Valero Energy stock are both sending a refining signal , climbing 5% and 4% respectively, while Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the fund's two largest disclosed positions in broad energy benchmarks, stayed comparatively flat — meaning stock-selection inside the sector, not just sector beta, mattered.

Broad market: Away from energy, stocks sank to session lows after long-dated bond yields climbed higher, then eased by afternoon, despite a jump in oil prices , and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite eked out a gain on chip strength. VIX ticked up to 16.3.

What's next: With conviction at 47.8 and only 1.6% of 1,418 names scoring high-conviction, breadth is thin. Watch oil headlines and Treasury yields for direction.

Research/education only — not investment advice.