Monday, October 5, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, October 5, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.42% today, well ahead of SPY's +0.59% — a roughly 83bp outperformance in a session still flagged RISK_OFF by our regime overlay (VIX 15.6, conviction score just 48.1, with only 1.8% of the 1,418-name universe scoring "high conviction").

What drove it: The model's edge came from its momentum/quality tilt into mega-cap tech and semiconductors, the session's clear leadership group. Semiconductors and high-beta technology remained the strongest supplied groups, led by SMH up over 2%, NVIDIA up over 1%, and high-beta growth names , and Cisco Systems rose 3.6%, the Dow's top gainer . The model's underweight to energy and rate-sensitive cyclicals helped too, as our screen flagged "war_escalation" risk: pre-market divergence was sharp as Hormuz Strait geopolitical tension pressured index futures while selective upgrades found aggressive bids . WTI near $89.50 reflected that premium even as crude eased slightly on the day.

Market recap: The S&P 500 edged up about 0.6-0.7%, the Dow was roughly flat, the Nasdaq gained around 0.7-1.2%, and the Russell 2000 rose nearly 1% . The backdrop: Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report (September payrolls up just 29,000) eased rate-hike worries and lifted growth stocks , even as yields stayed exceptionally high, creating an unusual valuation divergence .

What's next: Fed meeting minutes and continued Middle East headlines are the catalysts to watch this week — both could quickly shift the regime read.

Research/education only — not investment advice.