Tuesday, October 6, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — October 6, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell -0.14% today while SPY gained +0.57%, a roughly 71bp lag.

What drove it: QNTM's regime overlay flagged RISK_OFF, tied to a broad tariff event, pushing conviction to just 48.0 with only 1.8% of the 1,418-name universe scoring "high conviction." That defensive stance meant the model's 50 holdings were underweight the exact group that rallied hardest today — AI/semiconductor names. Tech led the rally once again as easing oil prices allowed investors to focus on earnings growth , with chipmakers bolstering the move higher as Marvell popped 6%, AMD gained 3%, and Broadcom traded up 4% . A model tilted toward value/quality defensives in a risk-off posture simply missed that momentum, while elevated WTI (~$89.64) likely kept energy-sensitive names in the portfolio from offsetting the gap.

Market recap: The 10-year Treasury yield touched levels last seen in 2002, surpassing 5.3%, while the 30-year breached 5.7%, its highest in 24 years — yet stocks climbed as yields and oil eased, with the S&P 500 up 0.50%, the Dow up 0.45%, and the Nasdaq up 0.56% , on pace for its first close above 7,800. Deutsche Bank flagged a growing bond-equity divergence, warning either stress eases quickly or risk assets must reprice for weaker growth .

Next: Q3 earnings season kicks off next week — a key test of whether equity optimism can outrun bond-market stress.